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Published Sep 28, 21
4 min read

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Some people, such as retirees, have immediate needs from their investment accounts. That means that they can't have the same cavalier attitude toward temporary losses and volatility. Luckily, there are proven methods for managing volatility and achieving positive returns in any market condition. Bonds and dividend stocks are two popular tools for limiting the downside of investments.

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Investors generally add more bonds to their portfolios as they approach and enter retirement. Bonds fluctuate in value, just like stocks, but they tend to fluctuate less. Moreover, their prices usually aren't correlated to stock indexes. Bonds also produce interest income at regular intervals..

In case you hadn’t guessed already, you’re not about to read a simple analysis that finally gets to the bottom of it, settles the dispute once and for all, and provides a simple prescription to ensure we’ll never suffer economic pain again. If your author had such answers, he would solve the world’s current problems, win Nobel Prizes, and charitably agree to be underpaid for a billion dollars per year.

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Saturation of the durable goods market and high consumer debt weren’t the only problems. There was a real estate bubble caused mainly by the Florida Land Boom. New home construction outpaced population growth by 25% in the 1920s and the portion of renters buying homes didn’t keep up with that.

They were already in debt when the Dust Bowl hit, starting in 1930-31. Like agriculture, neither mining nor textiles thrived as much as other industries in the 1920s. The success of assembly line-driven industries offset the declining farming sector for a while, but capitalism is cyclical. The country’s long post-war boom was bound to lose momentum and bust at some point.

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Steve Jobs, for instance, didn’t privately own Apple; he ran a company owned by millions of other shareholders. If you’ve heard of stock markets but don’t really have a clue, take a moment to read this, then proceed. It’s important to understand markets because many Americans save for retirement through 401(k)’s, IRA’s or pension funds invested in stock and bonds.

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People knew what was going on and that the players paid off newspapers to print news about companies, but small investors still hoped to ride the prices up themselves and not be the ones left holding the “chop stock” in the sell-off. The impact of pool operators on small investors wasn’t so much negative as random.

They are as unlikely to not burst as you are likely to blow gum into an infinitely expanding bubble that never pops and covers your face in pink goo. 1920s investors fell for the classic it’s different this time mantra — the so-called “five most dangerous words on Wall Street” — because the economy was powered by electricity for the first time, so boosts in productivity and consumer spending seemed potentially infinite.

g. P/E ratios) can rise infinitely in the near-term with no regard to corporations’ actual profitability. In those cases, a correction is inevitable. A similar correction was bound to happen in the early 21st-century real estate boom. When asked if we were in a speculative bubble then, real estate agents were fond of saying “God isn’t making more land.” Perhaps not, but that didn’t mean that the cost of homes in relation to salaries and cost of living could rise infinitely.

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Fearing that such talk would itself set off a panic, the establishment collectively told Hoover to shut his pie hole. Hoover didn’t get much help from the Federal Reserve or Treasury, either. The Fed recognized the problem but did nothing, even as the president-elect encouraged them to raise interest rates (then at 6%) on investment banks to curb “crazy and dangerous” gambling.

But when stocks fell brokers called in their loans and investors didn’t have the money. Once the price of a stock dropped 10%, brokers sold the stock and called in their loans from investors. Since margin investing was so widespread, this triggered a cascading effect once the market dropped. Still, brokers encouraged customers to borrow so they could invest more and the brokers got their commission fees.

On Monday and “Black Tuesday” the market continued to fall, closing down 36% from where it had been the previous mid-week. Simply put, there were far more sellers than buyers at given prices. Some big bankers that were propping up the market the previous Thursday started liquidating their own portfolios, even as they increased loans to stave off a run on cash.

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Many investment trusts had invested in each other as well and used their customers’ money to buy back declining stock in their own companies. The $30 billion that evaporated the first week was 10x more than the entire federal budget and more than all of what the U.S. spent on WWI.